The Timetable Is the Network

The Finding

Of every 100 tonnes of cryogenic propellant dispatched from Earth toward Jupiter via relay chain, fewer than 3 arrive. This is not an insulation problem or a budget problem. It is a consequence of orbital mechanics and hydrogen thermodynamics that no relay architecture with passive cryogenic storage can overcome.

Policy brief · The covered wagon essay

The Framework

TIN computes delivery ratios for any scheduled transport network through an exact factorization: DR = S_T × η. A single diagnostic, gamma, classifies networks as CLUSTER (path diversity helps) or TRAP (adding routes makes things worse). The framework screens commodity-dependent feasibility before hardware is committed. Validated across 290,000+ configurations spanning 8 planetary bodies and 5 terrestrial contact datasets.

The Phase Diagram

Commodity phase diagram showing feasibility boundaries by cargo half-life and transit time. Liquid hydrogen cannot survive any route beyond Mars. Hardware on the same route arrives at 42%. — Commodity feasibility depends on two numbers: how long the cargo survives (vertical axis) and how long the trip takes (horizontal axis). Liquid hydrogen cannot survive any route beyond Mars. Hardware on the same route arrives at 42%.

Interactive Tools

Sparse Law Calculator — predict delivery ratios from network parameters using the three-factor sparse law
Solar System Holodeck — 3D explorer with orbital mechanics, DTN contact links, and constellation overlays

Code & Data

github.com/toxic2040/TIN — source code, simulation engine, experiment runners
Zenodo archive — citable, versioned snapshot
License: AGPL-3.0-or-later

About

J. Councilman is an independent researcher working on network theory for scheduled transport systems.